Frequent tariff news, coupled with a decline in copper inventories, helps drive up prices [[SMM Morning Comment on Copper]]

SMM April 29 News: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,374/mt, fluctuated considerably in early trading to hit a low of $9,358/mt during the session, then fluctuated upward towards the end of the session to reach a high of $9,415/mt, and finally closed at $9,405.5/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume reached 11,000 lots, and open interest reached 285,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2506 contract opened at 77,740 yuan/mt, immediately hitting a high of 77,760 yuan/mt in early trading. After surging during the session, it pulled back to hit a low of 77,410 yuan/mt, then rebounded towards the end of the session to close at 77,630 yuan/mt, up 0.34%. Trading volume reached 31,000 lots, and open interest reached 162,000 lots. On the macro front, ① Atlantic Monthly exclusive interview: Trump believes no red lines will change tariff policies. ② US Treasury Secretary: The first trade agreement may be reached as early as this week or next, with India potentially among the first batch. ③ German Chancellor-designate Merz will urge Trump to eliminate all tariffs. The market is cautiously awaiting further news on trade policies. The US dollar has declined across the board, which is bullish for copper prices. On the fundamental front, from the supply side, as of Monday, April 28, SMM copper inventories in major Chinese regions fell by 26,600 mt WoW to 155,100 mt. Compared to the inventory changes last Friday, all regions across the country experienced destocking. Continuous destocking in the Shanghai region has kept Shanghai spot copper premiums firm. In the absence of significant import replenishment, inventories are expected to continue declining before the holiday. From the demand side, as the Labour Day holiday approaches, the slight decline in futures prices has encouraged downstream players to actively pick up goods. Downstream purchasing sentiment remains moderate, leading to continuous destocking at warehouses. Meanwhile, there are also cases of downstream players continuing to bargain down purchasing prices, indicating a certain degree of caution. On the price front, supported by fundamentals, copper prices are expected to still have upside room today.